
CISAC, Encina Hall, Room E202
Phone: (650) 725-2715
Political Science Dept.
Encina Hall West, Room 308
Awards
Honorary Doctor of Laws, Ohio Wesleyan University, Awarded May 2008.
Fellow, American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Elected, 2008.
Recipient of the International Studies Association’s 2008 Deborah Misty Gerner Innovative Teaching Award
Recipient of Stanford University’s 1998-99 Dean’s Award for Distinguished Teaching.
Recipient of Stanford University's 1996 Laurance and Naomi Hoagland Prize for Undergraduate Teaching.
Grants Received and Managed
9/1/06- 10/14/07: Naval Postgraduate School Principal Investigator
“Terrorist Strategies”
9/15/06 – 9/14/07 Department of the Navy Principal Investigator
“Explaining Variation in Terrorist and Insurgent Strategies and Tactics"
10/01/06 – 9/30/08 Carnegie Corporation Principal Investigator
“Knowledge to Build a Safer World"
1/15/06 – 10/14/06 Department of Homeland Security Co-Principal Investigator
“State and Local Government Coordination and Preparedness Program Assessment and
Evaluation”
1/01/03 – 12/31/06 Compton Foundation, Inc. Principal Investigator
“Global Arms Control Summit: Training the Next Generation in Diplomacy"
10/01/04 – 09/30/06 Carnegie Corporation Principal Investigator
“International Security in a World of Emerging Threats"
10/01/04 – 08/31/06 Nuclear Threat Initiative Principal Investigator
“Ballistic Missile Defense and Nuclear Security in South Asia”
05/01/04 – 03/31/06 The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Principal Investigator
“Strengthening Collective Security for the Twenty-First Century: Assisting the Work of the
UN High-Level Panel"
1/1/04 – 12/30/05 Dept. of Homeland Security Co-principal Investigator
“Making a Difference: Facilitating Organizational Learning and Change Through the
National Exercise Program”
9/30/03 – 9/29/04 US Army War College Principal Investigator
“South Asia and the Nuclear Future”
10/01/02 – 9/30/04 Carnegie Corporation Co-principal Investigator
“International Security in a Changed World: Opportunities and Challenges”
7/01/02 – 6/30/03 Compton Foundation, Inc. Principal Investigator
“The Challenge of Cooperation on Counter-Terrorism and Nuclear Security”
9/01/01 – 8/31/03 W. Alton Jones Foundation Co-principal Investigator
“Nuclear Safety, Security, and Stability in South Asia and The Project on Peace and Cooperation in
the Asian-Pacific Region”
7/01/01 – 6/30/02 Compton Foundation, Inc. Principal Investigator
“CISAC Workshop on Preventing Accidental Nuclear War in South Asia”
10/01/00 – 9/30/02 Carnegie Corporation Co-principal Investigator
“International Security in a Changing World”
9/01/99 – 8/31/02 W. Alton Jones Foundation Co-Principal Investigator
“Strategic Stability: China and South Asia”
9/01/00 – 8/31/01 Ploughshares Fund Principal Investigator
“Security Issues in the Middle East”
6/01/01 – 10/31/01 Nuclear Threat Initiative Principal Investigator
“Nuclear Safety, Security and Stability in South Asia”
6/01/00 – 1/01/01 Compton Foundation, Inc. Principal Investigator
“CISAC Workshop on Nuclear Safety and Security in South Asia”
10/01/98 – 9/30/00 Carnegie Corporation Co-Principal Investigator
“International Security in a Changing World”
7/01/98 – 6/30/01 Smith Richardson Foundation Co-Principal Investigator
“The Future Role of Nuclear Weapons”
9/01/97 – 8/31/00 The Ford Foundation Principal Investigator
“Implementation of Peace Agreements in Civil Wars”
6/01/95 – 3/01/97 W. Alton Jones Foundation Principal Investigator
“Reducing the Demand for Nuclear Weapons”
3/01/94 – 12/31/94 NATO Grants: Principal Investigator
“Advanced Research Workshop: Nuclear Weapons Safety After the Cold War
9/01/90 – 8/31/91 Carnegie Corporation in New York Principal Investigator
“Accidents at the Brink”
Inside Nuclear South Asia, Scott D. Sagan (ed.) (forthcoming 2009, Stanford University Press)
The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, co-authored with Kenneth N. Waltz, (2nd edition of 1995 book, revised with a new chapters and sections on India and Pakistan, terrorism, and national missile defense, W.W. Norton, 2002).
Planning the Unthinkable: How New Powers Will Use Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Weapons, co-edited with Peter R. Lavoy and James J. Wirtz, (Cornell University Press, 2000).
The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate, co-authored with Kenneth N. Waltz, (1st edition, W.W. Norton, 1995).
Civil Military Relations and Nuclear Weapons, edited by Scott D. Sagan (Center for International Security and Arms Control, Stanford University, 1994).
The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons (Princeton University Press, 1993). Winner of the 1993/1994 Best Book Award from the Science, Technology, and Environmental Studies Section of the American Political Science Association.
Moving Targets: Nuclear Strategy and National Security (Princeton University Press, 1989).
Living with Nuclear Weapons, co-authored with Albert Carnesale, Paul Doty, Stanley Hoffmann, Samuel P. Huntington and Joseph S. Nye (Harvard University Press, 1983).
“A Nuclear Iran: Promoting Stability or Courting Disaster?,” with Kenneth N. Waltz and Richard K. Betts. Journal of International Affairs (Spring/Summer 2007), pp. 135-152.
“How to Keep the Bomb from Iran,” Foreign Affairs (September/October 2006), pp. 45-59.
“The Problem of Redundancy Problem: Why More Nuclear Security Forces May Produce Less Nuclear Security.” Risk Analysis (August 2004), pp. 935-946. Winner of Columbia University’s Institute of War and Peace Studies 2003 paper competition on Political Violence.
“Realism, Ethics, and Weapons of Mass Destruction,” in Sohail Hashmi and Steven Lee (eds.)
Ethics and Weapons of Mass Destruction (Cambridge University Press, Ethikon Series in Comparative Ethics, 2004).
“Learning from Normal Accidents,” Organization and Environment (March 2004), pp. 15-19.
“The Madman Nuclear Alert: Secrecy, Signaling, and Safety in the October 1969 Crisis,” co-authored with Jeremi Suri, International Security (Spring 2003), pp. 150-183.
“The Perils of Proliferation in South Asia,” Asian Survey, (November/December 2001), pp. 1064-1086. Reprinted in part in Forum on Physics and Society (April 2004).
“Correspondence: Responding to Chemical and Biological Threats,” International Security, (Spring 2001), pp. 193-198.
“The Commitment Trap: Why the United States Should Not Use Nuclear Threats to Deter Biological and Chemical Weapons Attacks,” International Security, (Spring 2000), pp. 85-115.
“The Origins of Military Doctrines and Command and Control Systems,” in Lavoy, Sagan, and Wirtz, eds., Planning the Unthinkable: How New Powers Will Use Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Weapons, (Cornell University Press, 2000), pp. 16-46.
“Conclusions: Planning the Unthinkable,” (with Peter R. Lavoy and Lewis A. Dunn) in Lavoy, Sagan, and Wirtz, eds., Planning the Unthinkable: How New Powers Will Use Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Weapons (Cornell University Press, 2000), pp.230-257.
"Review Symposium on Diane Vaughan's The Challenger Launch Decision," (with review essays by Karl E. Weick, Scott D. Sagan, and Karlene H. Roberts), Administrative Science Quarterly (June 1997), pp. 401-405.
"Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons?: Three Models in Search of a Bomb," International Security (Winter 1996/97), pp. 54-87. [Revised and updated versions of this article also appear as "The Causes of Nuclear Proliferation," Current History (April 1997), pp. 151-156 and as “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons?” in Victor Utgoff, ed., The Coming Crisis: Nuclear Proliferation, U.S. Interests, and World Order (MIT Press, 1999), p. 17-50.]
“Correspondence: Proliferation, Pessimism and Emerging Nuclear Powers,” International Security (Fall 1997), pp. 193-201. An exchange of letters among Peter D. Feaver, David J. Karl and Scott D. Sagan.
"Responses and Reflections," Security Studies (Summer 1995), pp. 805-810. A response to six review essays of The Spread of Nuclear Weapons, published as a special section on “The Kenneth Waltz-Scott Sagan Debate“ in the same issue.
"Toward a Political Theory of Organizational Reliability," Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management (December 1994), pp. 228-243.
"The Perils of Proliferation: Organization Theory, Deterrence Theory, and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons," International Security (Spring 1994), pp. 66-108. [Reprinted in part in Robert J. Art and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Use of Force (5th edition, Rowman and Littlefield, 1999), pp. 372-384.]
"Organized for Accidents," (A response to Bradley Thayer's "The Risk of Nuclear Inadvertence: A Review Essay"), Security Studies (Spring 1994), pp. 509-520.
"From Deterrence to Coercion to War: The Road to Pearl Harbor," in Alexander L. George and William E. Simons (eds.), The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy (Westview Press, 2nd edition, 1994), pp. 57-90.
"Rules of Engagement," Security Studies (Autumn 1991), pp. 78-108. [Reprinted in Alexander L. George (ed.) Avoiding War: Problems of Crisis Management (Westview Press, 1991). pp. 443-470.]
"Reducing the Risks: A New Agenda for Military-to-Military Talks," Arms Control Today (July-August 1991), pp 16-21. [Reprinted in Reducing the Risk of Dangerous Military Activities (Center for International Security and Arms Control, Stanford University, 1991), pp.27-39.]
"History, Analogy, and Deterrence Theory: A Review Essay,” Journal of Interdisciplinary History (Summer 1991), pp. 79-88.
"Change and Continuity in U.S. Nuclear Strategy" in Michael Mandelbaum (ed.), America's Defense (Holmes and Meier, 1989), pp. 279-317.
"Origins of the Pacific War," Journal of Interdisciplinary History (Spring 1988), pp. 893-922. [Reprinted in Robert I. Rotberg and Theodore K. Rabb (eds.), The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars (Cambridge University Press, 1989), pp.323-352.]
"SIOP-62: The Nuclear War Plan Briefing to President Kennedy," International Security, (Summer 1987), pp. 22-51.
“Correspondence: The Origins of Offense and the Consequences of Counterforce,” International Security (Winter 1986-87), pp.193-198. An exchange of letters between Jack Snyder and Scott D. Sagan.
"1914 Revisited: Allies, Offense and Instability," International Security (Fall 1986), pp. 151-175. [Reprinted in Steven E. Miller, Sean M. Lynn-Jones, and Steven Van Evera (eds.,) Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War (Princeton University Press, 1991), pp. 109-133 and Richard K. Betts (ed.), Conflict After the Cold War: Arguments on Causes of War and Peace (Macmillan, 1994), pp. 330-343 .
"Nuclear Alerts and Crisis Management" International Security, (Spring 1985), pp.99-139. [Reprinted in Sean Lynn-Jones, Steven E. Miller, and Steven Van Evera (eds.), Nuclear Diplomacy and Crisis Management (MIT Press, 1990), pp. 159-199.]
Contributor to Strategic Survey 1982-1983 (International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1983).
"Lessons of the Yom Kippur Alert," Foreign Policy (Fall 1979), pp. 160-177.
"Congressional Demands for American Troop Withdrawals from Western Europe," (with Phil Williams), Journal of the Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies, (September 1976).
"Senator Mansfield and the NATO Alliance," Royal Air Forces Quarterly (Summer 1976).