Caitlin Talmadge - Nuclear Escalation Risk in an Era of Multi-Actor Nuclear Competition

Date
-
Location
Encina Hall West, room 400
Abstract

What are the most important factors that could lead to nuclear use? In contrast to the dominant scholarly and policy perspectives on nuclear escalation, we argue that the structure of the emerging deterrence environment—characterized by what we call multi-actor nuclear competition—raises distinct and significant risks of nuclear use compared to periods of dyadic nuclear competition. Drawing on a book manuscript in progress, this talk will first define the concept of multi-actor nuclear competition. It will then present an original typology of nuclear escalation risks, using it to distinguish among different mechanisms that could lead states to turn to nuclear weapons in a crisis. We argue that multi-actor competition has the potential to activate several of these mechanisms because of its likely effect on signaling in nuclear crises involving three or more nuclear-armed states, as opposed to two. We present a research strategy for testing these claims and initial archival evidence in support of our argument.

Biography

Caitlin Talmadge is Associate Professor of Security Studies in the Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, as well as Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution, and Research Affiliate in the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Her work examines nuclear deterrence and escalation, civil-military relations, military strategy and operations, and defense policy, with a particular focus on security issues in Asia and the Persian Gulf. She is an author of the award-winning book, The Dictator's Army: Battlefield Effectiveness in Authoritarian Regimes (Cornell University Press, 2015), as well as co-author of U.S. Defense Politics: The Origins of Security Policy, now in its fourth edition (Routledge, 2021). She is currently on research leave from Georgetown University as the Kissinger Chair in Foreign Policy and International Relations at the Kluge Center at the U.S. Library of Congress.